Jumping to Conclusions

Dr. Esther Hattingh

Hello again, and welcome back to Thinking Fast and Slow. I’m Dr. Esther Hattingh, and today we’re diving into something that, honestly, I see all the time in my work—how our minds are just so quick to make sense of the world, sometimes a little too quick. If you’ve been following along, you’ll remember in our last episode we talked about System 1 and System 2—those two ways our brains process information, with System 1 being the fast, automatic one, and System 2 the slower, more deliberate thinker. Today, we’re going to look at how System 1 keeps this running mental model of what’s normal, and how it deals with surprises.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

So, System 1 is always busy, right? It’s constantly updating its idea of what’s normal in our environment. When something unexpected happens, it doesn’t just sit there and go, “Oh, that’s odd.” No, it immediately tries to fit that surprise into the story it’s already telling itself. I mean, think about it—if you see two strange things happen in a row, your mind will almost automatically try to connect them, even if there’s no real link. It’s like, “Well, that must mean something!” But, statistically, maybe it doesn’t. That’s where System 2 should step in, but, as we’ve discussed, System 2 is a bit lazy unless it really has to get involved.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

I actually had a situation like this in my own work, designing educational programs. There was this one time when a group of students started behaving in a way that just didn’t fit the usual pattern. My first instinct—my System 1—was to come up with a quick explanation. “Oh, it must be because of the new assessment format,” I thought. But, when I actually went back and looked at the data, it turned out there were a few other factors at play—things I wouldn’t have noticed if I’d just stuck with my first impression. It’s so easy to rationalize surprises, to just weave them into the story we already believe, but that’s not always the most accurate way to understand what’s really going on.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

And, you know, this tendency to jump to causal explanations—even when the real answer is more complicated or statistical—can lead us astray. System 1 wants a neat story, but sometimes, life is just messy. That’s where we need to pause and let System 2 do its thing, even if it takes a bit more effort.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

Now, building on that, let’s talk about what happens when System 1’s need for a coherent story goes a bit too far. This is where confirmation bias comes in. System 1 loves a good story, and it really doesn’t like anything that contradicts it. So, if you already believe something, you’re much more likely to notice evidence that supports your belief and ignore anything that doesn’t fit. That’s confirmation bias in action.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

There’s also something called the halo effect, which is kind of a cousin to confirmation bias. If you like one thing about a person, you’re more likely to assume you’ll like everything else about them, too. It’s like your brain just wants everything to line up neatly. Kahneman has a great term for this—WYSIATI, or “What You See Is All There Is.” Basically, your mind works with whatever information is right in front of it, and it doesn’t go looking for what’s missing. That’s a bit scary, isn’t it? Because it means we’re often making decisions with only part of the picture.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

I see this all the time in professional and academic settings. Let’s say reviewing a student’s work, and you already have an impression—maybe they did well on the first assignment, so one expect the student to do well again. One might overlook mistakes or give the student the benefit of the doubt, just because your mind wants the story to stay consistent. Or, in a meeting, if someone you respect suggests an idea, you might be more likely to agree, even if there’s evidence it’s not the best approach. It’s not that we’re being lazy, exactly—it’s just that System 1 is so good at making us feel like we’ve got all the information we need, even when we don’t.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

And, I mean, I’m definitely guilty of this myself. Sometimes I catch myself thinking, “Well, I haven’t heard anything to the contrary, so this must be right.” But, as we’ve discussed in previous episodes, that’s exactly when we need to slow down and ask, “What am I missing here?” It’s not easy, but it’s so important if we want to make better decisions.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

Alright, let’s shift gears a bit and talk about one of my favorite analogies from Kahneman—the Tetris analogy. If you’ve ever played Tetris, you know how it starts off slow, with just a few blocks, and you can easily fit them together. That’s cognitive ease. Everything fits, you feel in control, and your mind is happy. But as the game speeds up, more blocks start piling up, and suddenly it’s not so easy anymore. That’s cognitive strain—when your mind has to work harder to make sense of new, sometimes conflicting information.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

System 1 is like a novice Tetris player, just focused on the blocks right in front of them, trying to make patterns out of what’s immediately available. It doesn’t really plan ahead or think about what might come next. System 2, on the other hand, is like an expert player—always thinking a few moves ahead, considering different possibilities, and managing the chaos as things get more complicated.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

I’ve definitely felt this in my own work, especially when I’m introducing new educational technology tools into a curriculum. At first, everything seems straightforward—there’s that sense of cognitive ease. But then, as you dig deeper, all these unexpected challenges start to pop up. Suddenly, you’re in cognitive strain, trying to fit all these new “blocks” into your existing system. It can be overwhelming, but it’s also where real learning and growth happen, if you let System 2 take the wheel for a bit.

Dr. Esther Hattingh

So, as we wrap up today’s episode, just remember—our minds are amazing at making sense of the world, but sometimes they do it a little too quickly. Next time you find yourself jumping to conclusions or feeling like everything fits just a bit too neatly, take a step back. Ask yourself, “Am I seeing the whole picture, or just what’s right in front of me?” Thanks for joining me, and I hope you’ll tune in next time as we keep exploring how we think, fast and slow.